Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-25 2.255906 2.621468 3.026067 3.506913 4.062687 4.684799 5.434004
2026-02-01 1.542841 1.992787 2.543860 3.267777 4.193302 5.336723 6.856890
2026-02-08 1.152709 1.623874 2.250836 3.144699 4.385339 6.045820 8.437516
2026-02-15 0.923726 1.400130 2.079902 3.118063 4.661648 6.870500 10.271860
2026-02-22 0.797539 1.287999 2.031372 3.236132 5.136816 8.017542 12.715192
2026-03-01 0.670828 1.146838 1.908424 3.210107 5.375379 8.829616 14.757424
2026-03-08 0.567122 1.021299 1.784717 3.154292 5.544874 9.540017 16.720687
2026-03-15 0.494013 0.933327 1.706086 3.155571 5.799960 10.411582 19.058819
2026-03-22 0.469176 0.926224 1.764325 3.401743 6.512014 12.150882 23.140103
2026-03-29 0.424202 0.873329 1.730235 3.470669 6.906030 13.368360 26.432019
2026-04-05 0.384302 0.823350 1.693148 3.525981 7.277600 14.585243 29.877335
2026-04-12 0.343731 0.765138 1.630653 3.519883 7.523713 15.586737 33.025606
2026-04-19 0.304290 0.704710 1.558393 3.490932 7.736158 16.583925 36.381685
2026-04-26 0.255534 0.615853 1.413397 3.286108 7.550587 16.749324 38.044421
2026-05-03 0.221109 0.553736 1.317034 3.173470 7.549421 17.304872 40.636614
2026-05-10 0.197624 0.513441 1.263599 3.150409 7.746930 18.321026 44.407491
2026-05-17 0.185793 0.499789 1.270363 3.271047 8.298969 20.213112 50.477314
2026-05-24 0.167089 0.465218 1.220839 3.245214 8.491226 21.290286 54.751910
2026-05-31 0.149189 0.429590 1.163012 3.188957 8.598382 22.176318 58.682062
2026-06-07 0.136097 0.404805 1.129281 3.190305 8.853834 23.462546 63.809019
2026-06-14 0.134668 0.412807 1.184121 3.439159 9.803099 26.638196 74.303751
2026-06-21 0.126027 0.398247 1.174882 3.508837 10.274471 28.632391 81.924315
2026-06-28 0.117661 0.383047 1.161505 3.564750 10.716076 30.607226 89.773969